Ki Jong Um started off making sure his possible opponents were eliminated.  He sent orders to kill his aunt's husband and his own brother.  He also worked on a policy turn – byungjin – continuing to develop their nuclear arsenal and ALSO focusing on increasing economic development.  This focus on the economy may be the key to him holding on to power.  Even in more open societies, if the economy is moving along, then politicians can get themselves re-elected.  Of course Kim does not have to worry about elections, but he does need to keep his people happy and obedient.  Kim has kept the policy of juche in place.  He also makes sure to keep a lock down on outside information.  If you are only hearing what the government wants you to then you can keep people under your control.  However more and more non North Korean information and entertainment is getting into North Korea.  I wonder if the realization that this knowledge was getting into his country, then there was a need to focus on the economy.  Of course that specter of nuclear weapons is the shadow in the foreign relations.  It seemed that we might have an opening in 2012 with the Leap Day Agreement.  There would be suspension and inspections in North Korea and the US would send food aid.  However once again it fell apart, this time due to a missile launch from North Korea.  He also has pushed (much like his father before him) for talks with the United States.  The difference is that this time they received an acceptance and an actual meeting from the current administration.  This looked like an opening to de-escalate the situation.  However it doesn’t look like anything has changed.  After meeting our current president gave Kim (at least in his eyes) some legitimacy to his regime internationally.  I wonder with all the starts and stops of these discussions, if our current president who is known as the deal maker and obviously would like to make this deal has run out of time with Kim.  I wonder if Kim figured that the meeting with president would bring a solution, but there have been no results. 

The second question is tough.  If I pay attention to the media, then yes I am worried about Kim.  Kim is trying to build long range nuclear missiles.  These missiles could reach the US.  The impressions of Kim in our media (to me) is someone who is not mentally stable.  What happens if does have this capability?  Of course, he might want these missiles to keep us on the sideline.  For example, we always thought Saddam wanted nuclear weapons so he could have a first strike on Israel, however after he was toppled it was found that he wanted these missiles so we (and Israel) would not use the nukes against him.  This would allow him (in his mind) to fight a conventional war against Israel.  Is Kim thinking the same thing?  If he has these nukes, does he plan to invade South Korea and expect that we will not help South Korea because of fears of nuclear weapons?  I think the key is that we have to remember Kim’s number one priority is to hold on to power.  Do first strikes allow him to stay in power?  Are the media representations right or wrong?  I think it would helpful if we could have some cultural exchanges.  When COVID19 is curtailed (here is hoping), maybe we send a NBA tournament over there.  Then maybe have the North Korean soccer team play a friendly over here.  It is important that we start “seeing” the North Korean people and not just the government.

How has Kim Jong Un forged his own path for the Kim dynasty?

Kim Jong Un has forged his own path for the Kim dynasty in four ways: through a continuity of repression, a hybrid of military-first/Juche policies, emphasing the economy, and making diplomatic overtures with adversaries like South Korea and the United States. I've read in the past that Kim Jong Il rejected his son Kim Jong Chol as leader thinking him too 'soft,' - that is, he's not ruthless enough to lead North Korea. Kim Jong Un has shown repeatedly that is not a problem for him, even to the point of purging family members like his uncle and half-brother. One could argue that this is an aspect of his father and grandfather's interpretation of Juche. As his father Kim Jong Il wrote in 1974 when systematizing Juche through his list "Ten Principles for the Establishment of the One-Ideology System" 'most of the principles involved acknowledging the absolute authority of the surpreme leader and pledging total obedience to the state.' (Baek, Foreign Affairs, 36). In addition to utilizing this ideology, Kim Jong Un has been intentional in even looking like his grandfather Kim Il Sung, by maintaining a high weight and emulating his haircut, thus showing even physically a continuity in the line of succession from the 'eternal president.' In addition to continuing (reviving?) Juche, he's also combining it and continuing with his father's 'military-first' politics, as seen by his continual pursuit of nuclear weapons. Third, as Dr. Jung-Kim stated in her powerpoint lecture, Kim Jong Un appears to be placing greater emphasis on the economy. Following the famine of the mid-90s that basically ended the ration/government food distribution program, a grey market developed in the DPRK to the point where today's generation of youth have no memory of the government once providing for all their needs. The grey and black markets are necessary to feed a population that otherwise would suffer and starve under sanctions. Kim has made diplomatic overtures to the United States and South Korea and has used high-profile summits with Presidents Moon and Trump to bring greater prestige to himself and his power. As he is in total control of the media in North Korea, he can use these summits as opportunities to prove to his own people that he is not only in charge, he's also on the same, or even higher, platform than the leaders of China, South Korea, and the United States. By being in total control of both the message and the messaging, he's able to fashion his own Cult of Personality akin to his father and grandfather, playing an inexperienced and incompetent US leader with no foreign policy experience to suit and support his own needs and ends.

How worried should we be about North Korea?

I don't feel we should be worried about North Korea. Kim may be ruthless, but he's not stupid. He has some understanding of the West, having been educated in Switzerland. I don't see that he has any plans for expansion or world domination. Invading the South would only backfire, and I think he's wise enough to know that. I suspect that, like leaders who only kill their own people (Pol Pot, Franco, et. al.) the United States and other countries will turn a blind eye as long as North Korea's flexing of nuclear capability remains just that - flexing and testing. If they were to actually bomb Guam or Japan, that would be a different story, but considering what I wrote above about Kim's ability to control his messaging, he doesn't need to do that in order to demonstrate his own power over his people; a photo op with the US President is just as effective, and cheaper. All he has to do to get the photo op is test a scary weapon every now and then.

Kim Jung Un has taken numerous steps to prove his worth, not only to the elite in North Korea but also the rest of the world. He has had some of his advisors and family members killed in an attempt to control information and send a message that some things were happening that he did not like. Whether or not these stories that we heard are the actual truth, theu do go so far as 'get the message' out to others and to the world. He also regularly and diligently shows that he is advancing the study and product of nuclear weapons and different short range and lang range missiles. Many of these missile test end up near US allies so that makes many people nervous. As he received some education in Switzerland, there was some hope that he would modernize some policies (economic and political) of the country. Additionally it was hopeful that since he had experienced the 'world outside NK' that he would be more willing to open the country - culturally, technologically (communication and entertainment), economically and politically....all around people were hopeful, but that does not appear to be happening. 

However, observation from my part....there are more memoirs published of people who have defected and escaped from North Korea since he took over in 2011. Does that mean more people are leaving? Or are the people leaving just feeling braver and willing to share their stories? Baek's book (which I just happened to read last month) gives many, many examples of technology (DVDs, USB Drives, laptops, etc) being smuggled into North Korea? It appears from his perspective, there are large numbers of people being exposed to information from outside. Does this mean Kim Jung Un is ok with this? He can't be in the dark about this, can he? Or is this is passive way 'opening' up the country to more outside information while he can still maintain that he controls the stream of information the people receive.  (And one of the soldiers in Crashing Landing on You is obsessed with K-drama - watched episodes while on duty!)

The next part of the question - do we need to worry about North Korea? I guess my first response is from what perspective? Economically? Politically? Militarily? Humanitarian?  All of these have such different answers. I don't think we need to worry economically, politically and militarily. Making a military move towards South Korea or towards Allies of the US would be detrimental to the people of North Korea who suffer most as a result of this type of action. However, from a humanitarian perspective, yes, we need to worry. There are still many people living in poverty, being illegally imprisoned, and huge divides in access to services, information, care, etc.   This is really a loaded question!

I had the same thought re: change in leadership for the US . . . one of the articles mentioned KJU "outlasted" Obama and Bush.  Undoubtedly that is how he sees it, but I didn't like the phrasing of it, since HE didn't defeat either of them - our term limits did.  

And I agree with your point about the teams of experts coming down to two people - like the article describing NKs and SKs summit where they both continuously went 'off-script'.  {Tongue-in-cheek}, I'm watching the show Madame Secretary this summer, and I can just imagine the hours, days, weeks, etc that went in to planning everything out via careful negotiations so as to not have either side cause offense, and both just basically threw the 'cue-cards' in the air.  It worked out okay in that instance, but it could so easily change.

Meghann - Great point about possible change of administrations.  I wonder if North Korea and China are waiting to see what happens with our election.  Since a Republican president opened up the dialogue, if Biden wins, then the Republicans should not be able to question if he wants to continue the dialogue. Of course in this day and age, they will.  On the other side, if there is a change - how does that also change the relationship between the US and other interested parties (Japan and South Korea).  It seems to me that our current administration has taken a very hard line on our East Asia allies.  I think this has made this issue even more complex and I wonder if it has fueled anti - American attitudes in South Korea.  If yes, how does that play out?  I know South Korea has agreed to increase their share of costs for an American presence, however if the current administration is still in power and COVID19 continues to wreak havoc on our lives, how will this play out in the future?  Will we continue to ask for increases in South Korea's share due to economic downturns here?  If yes, does South Korea eventually say this is not a cost benefit relationship anymore?  

Based my reading of Baek, I think the U.S. and its allies need to be pretty vigilant with regard to North Korea, at least in the short-term, because  according to the article, while the attitudes of young people are changing and technology is increasing their knowledge of the outside world, regime change does not appear to be imminent. Baek points out that the younger generation has grown up more accustomed to gaining what they need through private gray markets "jangmadang." This may ultimately reduce their loyalty and gratitude to the state, setting them apart from their parents and grandparents, but this process is likely to take many years. For now, the state is still successfully pervading the lives of ordinary people with propaganda to encourage loyalty to North Korea's leaders, using tactics such as a state radio that broadcasts all day and cannot be turned off and the naming of a school after a girl who sacrificed her lift to save portraits of the leaders. Right now it seems that South Korean and other foreign popular culture holds a strong attraction for young people, but it does not appear to be inspring the kind of activism that could destabilize the regime. North Koreans lack internet access, the government possesses nuclear weapons, and sanctions have not proved effective in reducing the regime's commitment to a nuclear build-up.

How has Kim Jong Un forged his own path for the Kim dynasty? How worried should we be about North Korea?

First, how did he actually become successor and keep that position? By murdering his uncle and his brother… On the one hand, Kim Jong Un comes with a slightly more worldly perspective than his predecessors, while on the other, he has shown himself to be at least as ruthless and unpredictable as his father and grandfather. He appears inclined to emulate his grandfather in many ways, including his image, using the Korean Workers’ flag, meeting with the people at their workplaces- could he be going for the nostalgia factor and hoping to appeal to young and old alike?  Because at the same time, he is intent on continuing to build up military force, which seems more in line with his father’s regime.  So in many ways “his own path” seems to be a mixing of elements of his father’s path and his grandfather’s path.

One thing that is different is Kim Jong Un’s in-person meetings with the US, but this was only possible because Trump is the first US president willing to meet with a North Korean leader.

I think we should be pretty worried.  Kim Jong Un is unpredictable, saying one thing and doing another. He may not have the power he pretends, but he does have significant ability to do real damage to neighboring countries and his own people, if he wishes. And in North Korea, his power is absolute and unquestioned. With limited Russian or Chinese support, North Korea becomes more independent, and this is scarier because there are fewer opportunities to limit its power through diplomatic or economic influence. However, he does want legitimacy in the eyes of the world, and some knowledge of the outside world is also seeping in to North Korea, so he also has reasons to hold back. Although I don’t see North Korea as seeking world domination, the unpredictability is a danger.