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Home › Forums › Short Online Seminars › Contemporary China, Spring 2021 › Session #2 - February 9
Jonathan Alami.
stubingREQUIRED
Readings
Please scan the following (don't worry about reading every word, look at the graphs, read those sections you find interesting):
Questions to guide your reading:
Videos
2a. Reform and Opening
The first video begins with a quick look at the nature of the Chinese economy 1949-1978. China's economy was among the poorest in the world. On a per capita basis, the Chinese economy only generated $90 in 1960 and $113 in 1970. At the dawn of the economic reforms initiated by Deng Xiaoping and his associates, in 1980, the economy still only generated $195 per person. By 1990, the figure was $318, markedly better.
2b. China Shakes the World
The second lecture in this section focuses on the rapid growth over the last 25 years. We explore the East Asian Development Model that helped Japan, South Korea and Taiwan enter the ranks of rich economies. We look at how China hopes to avoid the middle income trap and join those places among the high income societies. It faces numerous challenges that we highlight.
OPTIONAL
clay dubeChina's expansion of higher education is helping the country dramatically expand the professional class. There's still elitism (see the Li talk under optional above for this). Scott Rozelle's talk on Thursday explored the challenges facing China because high school education eludes too many of China's rural students. You can watch at our website or YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_gRKg_RXV1M&list=PLEAC41A08E1EE341A
Johnny WalkerIn thinking about China's economic trajectory, I find myself relating and comparing it to other historical models that I teach. The struggle I have in our 10th grade World History curriculum, or with the AP World: Modern is that post-War Chinese History is often one of the last units and has a limited time frame. Given the complexities, I'd like to determine the most efficient explanations to relate modern China to my students.
I think I'd most likely like to start at the end, with the Belt and Road Initiative. The propaganda song video is hilarious and disconcerting which would make it a perfect jumping off point for my students to ask questions to put it into context. There are also some excellent news videos on PBS about the initiative where it is directly compared to the ancient Silk Road (of which students are familiar).
Based on the two lectures, I would begin by stressing Mao's Stalinist model. The concept of 5 Year Plans, Agricultural Revolutions at great human cost (we study the Holomodor Ukrainian Famine) followed by a massive yet largely unsuccessful Industrialization campaign and a cult of personality seem to generally cover the period from 49 to '68. The Cultural Revolution is so fascinating, but I'm not necessarily sure how to weave that into the narrative of modern China. And, the Korean War will likely get little mention in this year's curriculum. Then, the post Mao era reminds me of the post Stalin era. Economic opening of the late 70's and early 80's and opening/detente with the US was somewhat similar to Kruschev's greater focus on consumer goods, de-Stalinization and visit to the United States. Of course, western companies did not use Soviet labor to manufacture products. But, the second-rate Soviet consumer goods and companies that were the butt of so many Reagan jokes bear some semblance to China's insular and not globally known brands. Likewise, the Chinese agricultural model that allowed for a modified form of capitalism after hitting quotas reminded me of Lenin's New Economic Policy. I really enjoyed the photographs and propaganda in the lectures. I'd love to use them with my class and also compare them to similar Soviet propaganda. I also really enjoyed the link to the New York Times videos about the Chinese social media companies that use all encompassing services and data. My students would be fascinated with that. And, it's such a clear way to illuminate both the ease and convenience as well as the dark side of an all encompassing surveillance app that people eagerly use.
Nevertheless, in order to efficiently map China's economic opening and restructuring, I really liked how the graphs in the second lecture about per capita GDP, FDI (foreign direct investment) and demographics (life expectancy by gender) told such a rich story of modern China in three charts. As part of the C3 initiative, I've been trying to incorporate more civics, geography and economics in my curriculum, and I think my students would really benefit from learning about, analyzing and comparing these charts with other nations as well. And, based on the rising levels of economic inequality there, I'd like to also find a graph of the gini curve to demonstrate that concept to the class.
But, I really like beginning the lesson at the Belt and Road Initiative. It would serve to have students wonder where is China going and how it arrived here. Then, I'd use Soviet models that they are familiar with to explain the Mao years and then introduce several economics concepts to explain its modern trajectory.
Jeanine Alexander
Tara Ann CarterThe CCP changes it policies under Deng Xiaoping as he begins to modernize and open up China as a global market. Additionally, rural people were lifted out of poverty as manufacturing and corporate interests work in collaboration with the Chinese government. Deng Xiaoping's remarks that it's okay for some people to get rich in efforts to elevate the country, which hint toward the openness in trading and business, encapsulates the possibility of China's rise. By working with outside economies in tandem, China has the manpower in the wings, and stood ready to transform into a global superpower. To the effect, I think more and more students (and adults) are aware of Chinese companies. In addition Huawei, Ali Baba and Hyundai are companies that remain increasingly part of the public conciousness as economic markets become increasingly globalized.
Ryan CarothersThe rapid economic development of China reminded me of what happened in Great Britain and the Unites States. But, instead of taking three centuries --- it took a few decades. Based on this rate of growth, The Belt and Road Initiative underscores the need for competitive structures to be built in the West --- if we wish to remain competitive. I am thinking about the Trans Pacific Partnership. New Skills at Work highlighted some of the weaknesses in China's economic structure, and included some suggestions that would allow for continual growth. I thought it was interesting J.P. Morgan encourages increasing access to universities, and vocational training to retool workers. Also, that they encourage giving workers more incentives or buy-in to the industry that they are in (thus, increasing worker productivity). It would be good for us to follow similar advice in the United States. I think it would be good for students to compare, and contrast the issues that help or hinder economic growth in China, and the United States. J.P. Morgan might have a similar article on the United States that would make for an easily constructed assignment. I'm thinking the students can read both of them, then discuss a set of questions and propose solutions within a small group.
Allison MurphyWhat I found interesting with both lectures is what happens after Mao dies. China goes from a nation looking within to solve economic inqualities to then almost being forced onto the global stage. After decades of trying to use what was within China's borders (agriculture and industry), to now an integral section of the global economy. Deng acts similarly to that of Gorbachev in the 1980s and opens China up more and more to foreign investors and businesses within China's borders. Their growth rate is also interesting to me. Based off the statistics given, growing from 2.4 trillion to 12.2 trillion and competing with the U.S. sounds huge (and is), but I wonder if we compared that growth to other industrialized countries in the same economic development stage, would it compare or because China is growing now, does that make the growth more powerful? I also wonder how data will be effected due to the pandemic. Will their 5-Year Plan be pushed back and if so, what does that mean for the global economy?
Gisela GaonaAs I read through the readings and perused the infographics, I was quite taken aback by how quick China was able to build up their economy into transforming into the 2nd largest economy in the world. I took particular interest in one of the infographics that laid out the numbers per million of Chinese living in poverty throughout the years. I was astonished to see that the number was well over 600 million just 30 years, and now is down to a very low figure. As a macro-econ teacher, I always try to think about how to frame China’s ever growing economy in comparison, and perhaps in competition with our own American economy.
One great exercise that I am planning to employ with my students is to create a Google Slides presentation where we talk about the infographics and their implications both on the domestic level in China, and at the world stage internationally. I am also planning to assign as a short reading part of the Skillsgap in Chinese labor market. China was able to boost their economy to magnificent proportions largely through the vehicle of cheap, unskilled labor. However, as China transforms their labor markets, it also transforms the type of labor China requires. The assigned reading did a great job at explaining where the past and present labor needs are, and the projections that China will need to implement to maintain their stakeholder as a major world economy.
Ray ClarkI agree with Ryan on his above point about J.P. Morgan doing a similar report on the United States, because that was one of my first thoughts, but I just finished that article around 2:30 today!
Actually the lectures and the readings brought up many questions that I hope will be answered, either in the upcoming sessions or by someone who knows more than I do. One of those is that while China does have significant challenges, for example the poisoned environment, is it being dealt with as seriously as it needs to be, uniformly? I look at the United States & Mexico as examples, that there are policies in place in certain areas, but there are also pushbacks at all levels against enforcing of national standards that would be universally beneficial in the longterm.
I would also like to understand the shrinking labor force better. Both videos and several of the articles mentioned the migration towards the cities and jobs, but I also noted that there was a disconnect from schooling (for the children of migrants, for example), to the jobs or even the training that would prepare them for the jobs that are needed. In a related point, I wonder if the lack of "social trust" that Clay mentioned is in large part due to the migration of the past few decades, since people are no longer as connected to their previous communities, there is more mixing of people from different areas of China, as well as a scrabbling for resources & opportunities, in addition to increased income inequality. I would add that an ever increasingly powerful surveillance-state does not help matters.
clay dubeJohnny, the Soviet example loomed large, in part because of the USSR's "socialist brother" status, the many advisors sent to China, and the training some received in the Soviet Union. The role of five year plans is significant. You'll see many business organizations and companies paying a lot of attention to the goals included in the plan. No idea if they are recording an English-language propaganda video to accompany the roll-out of #14 in March.
The plan was discussed at the Party's Central Committee plenum last fall and leaders met in December to hammer out the details. It will be presented and ratified at the National People's Congress in March. Every level of government will have its own plan, to support the central agenda.
At the same time that all this planning is going on, the private sector is where most Chinese work and where a large share of the country's GDP is produced. How might we teach about the usefulness and potential problems of a planned economy and how China continues to "build socialism with Chinese characteristics"?
clay dubeJeanine, you've hit on one of China's worries. How to build brands that represent quality and innovation? Here's an article in China Daily about top brands. Perhaps students might research the history and standing of these companies?
http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/201907/16/WS5d2d00c2a3105895c2e7d902_1.html
Jonathan Alamiclay dubeclay dubeAllison - the middle income trap is the threat here. The low-hanging fruit has been picked. Justin Yifu Lin argues that consumption will produce three more decades of growth, but Scott Rozelle is worried that China needs to expand rural high school availability: USCI | YouTube. Here's a CNBC report that draws on Justin Lin's expertise.
Jeanine AlexanderI appreciate the link- very useful and agreat idea. It may take China some time to get past the 'quality' question, but on a personal note, I have seen better quality in my lifetime!
