From Who Will Feed China, p.32: “It may well force a redefinition of security, a recognition that food scarcity and the associated economic instability are far greater threats than military aggression is.” I would add to this observation the increasing prominence of food—and beverage—in international trade relations as well as diplomacy and geopolitics. For instance, China’s tariffs on Australian wines (up to 200+ percent) and the accompanying grey market, vs. Japan’s recent, highly publicized, decision to eliminate tariffs on Australian wines. These reflect appetites for higher-value items (e.g. lobsters, etc.) beyond the staple foods, and I wonder what percentage of China's population has access to them.

Tangential to my point are the intriguing statistics cited in “China’s Safety Requirements Pose Challenge for Food Exporters” such as the sections titled: U.S. Products Accounted for 7 Percent of Refusals and Smaller Countries See Surge of Refusals in 2020. These conversations and considerations are further complicated by pandemic-imposed supply chain disruptions resulting in processing/shipping/inspection delays and, hence, “shortages.”

Is that leading to relative scarcity, instability, or insecurity? What are some of the current and reliable indicators to which we can refer?

Found interesting the immediate thought of lack of food and running out of resorces world wide. It brought back to my mind the thought of "water wars". I always thought that water will be an issue that will bring countries, regions to war. It was interesting that food will such a catalyst for such an event. Leaving in a rural area--the San Joaquin Valley in Califonia--has allowed me to see this first hand. More industry, less farm land. Although technological advances allows for more production, it also seems incredible to see how less and less land is used or "saved" for food production.

Fred Gale's second lecture has much on food safety issues, including differences between the US and China. Lucy Hornby's 2018 presentation on soil contamination and how it poses a threat to safe food: https://china.usc.edu/watch-presentations-environment-and-food-panel-china-finding-solutions-conference

https://dimsums.blogspot.com/

His current entry is about pork prices and includes this chart:

Thanks for posting Fred's blog. This is very helpful! 

China's unprecedented growth and development in recent decades has lept ahead of the development of regulations and systems to oversee and enforce them, much like earlier changes in the UK and USA, but when this interacts with an era of food (and water) scarcities in a changing environment, both natural and political, China and the rest of the world face huge, novel challenges. When I've been asked in the past about China's food scandals, I replied that the inquirer should read Sinclair's The Jungle. We've been there. Growth is hard. I'm struck by the class materials and the comments above that for China and the rest of us in the twenty-first century, we have apparent limits on how we will all get enough good food, leading to shortcuts, smuggling, gray markets, confused policies, and violence at various levels. The ways in which China, the USA, and other major food producers and consumers will affect all of us in localized and very personal ways that we cannot predict well. This session raises so many questions but also offers information about trends and issues. I hope mindful leaders and thoughtful citizens can keep needs, sources, and new technologies in mind. Even done with great care, these efforts will be imperfect and painful in many ways and places. I was born during the Green Revolution, which challenged Malthusian predictions in the last century, allowing us to feed a massive population of humans. The potential and massive side effects of these developments have affected different communities in various ways in a great spectrum of haves and have-nots. In the United States, for example, we benefit from a fundamental bounty, but so many here go hungry or have poor access to nutritious food, while our capitalist system and political policies prevent much of our excess production from consistently reaching the hungry in other parts of the world. China faces a much more constrained set of resources and options while also trying to feed the largest population on Earth. Its own systems of production, distribution, and quality assessment have undergone massive changes and are insufficient to maintain the consumer lifestyle, including food, that resembles that in the USA more and more every day. At the same time, China has its own range of access to quality victuals. Each of us can deepen our own understanding and that of our students in order to promote good choices for ourselves and our world.