Menu
close
Home › Forums › Short Online Seminars › Two Koreas, Summer 2020 › Session 3 (July 16) - 2011 to the Present: Kim Jong Un
Juana Evink.
cgaoHow has Kim Jong Un forged his own path for the Kim dynasty? How worried should we be about North Korea?
Video: The Two Koreas in the Kim Jong Un era (2011-)
Readings (use hyperlink or download below):
Tom MuellerKi Jong Um started off making sure his possible opponents were eliminated. He sent orders to kill his aunt's husband and his own brother. He also worked on a policy turn – byungjin – continuing to develop their nuclear arsenal and ALSO focusing on increasing economic development. This focus on the economy may be the key to him holding on to power. Even in more open societies, if the economy is moving along, then politicians can get themselves re-elected. Of course Kim does not have to worry about elections, but he does need to keep his people happy and obedient. Kim has kept the policy of juche in place. He also makes sure to keep a lock down on outside information. If you are only hearing what the government wants you to then you can keep people under your control. However more and more non North Korean information and entertainment is getting into North Korea. I wonder if the realization that this knowledge was getting into his country, then there was a need to focus on the economy. Of course that specter of nuclear weapons is the shadow in the foreign relations. It seemed that we might have an opening in 2012 with the Leap Day Agreement. There would be suspension and inspections in North Korea and the US would send food aid. However once again it fell apart, this time due to a missile launch from North Korea. He also has pushed (much like his father before him) for talks with the United States. The difference is that this time they received an acceptance and an actual meeting from the current administration. This looked like an opening to de-escalate the situation. However it doesn’t look like anything has changed. After meeting our current president gave Kim (at least in his eyes) some legitimacy to his regime internationally. I wonder with all the starts and stops of these discussions, if our current president who is known as the deal maker and obviously would like to make this deal has run out of time with Kim. I wonder if Kim figured that the meeting with president would bring a solution, but there have been no results.
The second question is tough. If I pay attention to the media, then yes I am worried about Kim. Kim is trying to build long range nuclear missiles. These missiles could reach the US. The impressions of Kim in our media (to me) is someone who is not mentally stable. What happens if does have this capability? Of course, he might want these missiles to keep us on the sideline. For example, we always thought Saddam wanted nuclear weapons so he could have a first strike on Israel, however after he was toppled it was found that he wanted these missiles so we (and Israel) would not use the nukes against him. This would allow him (in his mind) to fight a conventional war against Israel. Is Kim thinking the same thing? If he has these nukes, does he plan to invade South Korea and expect that we will not help South Korea because of fears of nuclear weapons? I think the key is that we have to remember Kim’s number one priority is to hold on to power. Do first strikes allow him to stay in power? Are the media representations right or wrong? I think it would helpful if we could have some cultural exchanges. When COVID19 is curtailed (here is hoping), maybe we send a NBA tournament over there. Then maybe have the North Korean soccer team play a friendly over here. It is important that we start “seeing” the North Korean people and not just the government.
Meghann SerilLike his father before him, it seems that Kim Jong Un has taken drastic measures to establish himself and his regime. By having those who could be seen as a threat assassinated, he has demonstrated that there will be no softening of power under his rule. He has also worked to establish his presence on the international stage and it seems his interactions with Trump have helped to affirm his power, at least to the North Koreans. This makes me wonder how his strategies might change when we have different leadership in the White House? Will he ramp up missile testing and nuclear power pursuits as a show of power or would he back down if ties between the United States and South Korea are strengthened? It demonstrates to me that although there are entire teams of experts, strategists, and diplomats who maintain international relations, the attitudes and postures of just two people can make or break these foreign engagements. I do think there should be worry about North Korea in the future because we have seen a swing in many parts of the world toward authoritarian leadership and this could further embolden Kim Jong Un. One remaining question I would like to discuss further is to learn more about how the family reunification process works and what happens after these photo ops?
Laura HuffmanHow has Kim Jong Un forged his own path for the Kim dynasty?
Kim Jong Un has forged his own path for the Kim dynasty in four ways: through a continuity of repression, a hybrid of military-first/Juche policies, emphasing the economy, and making diplomatic overtures with adversaries like South Korea and the United States. I've read in the past that Kim Jong Il rejected his son Kim Jong Chol as leader thinking him too 'soft,' - that is, he's not ruthless enough to lead North Korea. Kim Jong Un has shown repeatedly that is not a problem for him, even to the point of purging family members like his uncle and half-brother. One could argue that this is an aspect of his father and grandfather's interpretation of Juche. As his father Kim Jong Il wrote in 1974 when systematizing Juche through his list "Ten Principles for the Establishment of the One-Ideology System" 'most of the principles involved acknowledging the absolute authority of the surpreme leader and pledging total obedience to the state.' (Baek, Foreign Affairs, 36). In addition to utilizing this ideology, Kim Jong Un has been intentional in even looking like his grandfather Kim Il Sung, by maintaining a high weight and emulating his haircut, thus showing even physically a continuity in the line of succession from the 'eternal president.' In addition to continuing (reviving?) Juche, he's also combining it and continuing with his father's 'military-first' politics, as seen by his continual pursuit of nuclear weapons. Third, as Dr. Jung-Kim stated in her powerpoint lecture, Kim Jong Un appears to be placing greater emphasis on the economy. Following the famine of the mid-90s that basically ended the ration/government food distribution program, a grey market developed in the DPRK to the point where today's generation of youth have no memory of the government once providing for all their needs. The grey and black markets are necessary to feed a population that otherwise would suffer and starve under sanctions. Kim has made diplomatic overtures to the United States and South Korea and has used high-profile summits with Presidents Moon and Trump to bring greater prestige to himself and his power. As he is in total control of the media in North Korea, he can use these summits as opportunities to prove to his own people that he is not only in charge, he's also on the same, or even higher, platform than the leaders of China, South Korea, and the United States. By being in total control of both the message and the messaging, he's able to fashion his own Cult of Personality akin to his father and grandfather, playing an inexperienced and incompetent US leader with no foreign policy experience to suit and support his own needs and ends.
How worried should we be about North Korea?
I don't feel we should be worried about North Korea. Kim may be ruthless, but he's not stupid. He has some understanding of the West, having been educated in Switzerland. I don't see that he has any plans for expansion or world domination. Invading the South would only backfire, and I think he's wise enough to know that. I suspect that, like leaders who only kill their own people (Pol Pot, Franco, et. al.) the United States and other countries will turn a blind eye as long as North Korea's flexing of nuclear capability remains just that - flexing and testing. If they were to actually bomb Guam or Japan, that would be a different story, but considering what I wrote above about Kim's ability to control his messaging, he doesn't need to do that in order to demonstrate his own power over his people; a photo op with the US President is just as effective, and cheaper. All he has to do to get the photo op is test a scary weapon every now and then.
Jasmine WeeksHow has Kim Jong Un forged his own path for the Kim dynasty?
In many ways, Kim Jong Un is like his two immediate ancestors. He inherited the role as the supreme ruler of North Korea after the death of Kim Jong II’s death in 2011, a path probably paved and predestined just like his father’s. Kim Jong Un provides “on site guidance” like his grandfather and maintains the Juche ideology in its socialism.
Due to the heavy investments in military groups (nearly 20%) and the famine between 1994-1998 which caused increased poverty among the poor, Kim Jong Un also inherited the challenge to bring economic reform. North Korea has been attempting to enter the global market to increase its economic growth. However, there have been a lot of setbacks because North Korean is not willing to adhere to the denuclearization protocol as requested by the rest of the world, mainly the U.S. and South Korea. As a result, North Korea has been sanctioned by the U.S. to prevent them from participating in international trade and to withhold humanitarian aid from North Korea. Without the freedom and opportunity to import and export essential goods, it is difficult to build the home-based industries and provide sustenance for the suffering and needy civilians. It’s ironic that the advancement in nuclear technology and weaponry Kim Jong Un has achieved is also the very thing that prevents North Korea from normalizing its relationship with the rest of the world and moving its economy forward.
On the other hand, the advancement in the digital age and the lure to participate in its usage have consistently posed more threat to the North Korea regime. Back in 1974, Kim Jong II had systemized the principles of Juche to enforce more peer surveillance as to monitor the infiltrat of media from outside NK (Jieun Baek, 3). The use of cell phones and media players are heavily monitored and the media are censored to suit its propaganda. However, curiosity among the deprived non-elite and the allowance of a small market (jangmadang) system for civilians to buy and sell basic goods from one another at the stalls open the opportunity for a slow but sure infiltration of uncensored media via the black market. This makes it more challenging for the leadership to continue the repression with the false imessage that the “outside world is a wasteland of deprivation, immorality, and criminality” as official propaganda depicts (Jieun Baek, 2). This in turn resulted in the uprise of many defectors in who risked everything to get out of Korea in search of truth and a better life. They are also actively attmeoting to return to NK to rescue their families. Is this why Kim Jong Un holds so dearly its nuclear power ability, that scares everyone almost to the point of bowing down to him?
How worried should we be about North Korea?
I am not overly concerned about North Korea as a threat knowing that we have the technology such as THAAD and others to dismiss or reduce the threat. I am more concerned about the North Korean citizens, when the regime collapse, how to reculturate them into the society ourside that is so different from they are used to. I personally think that Kim Jong Un is unrealistic in that on one hand he wants North Korea to be recognized as a nuclear state and to be able to participate in world trade, and yet still not willing to give up some degree of denuclearization. The continuation in the buildup of nuclear weaponry seems to me more than just a defensive act. However, Kim Jong Un probably just as much “brainwashed” as those he subjugates due to many years being in a “closed” country. Perhaps the diplomacy and friendliness that Trump displayed in 2019 is an attempt to slowly melt the hard facade and fabrication that may be the only tactic KIm Jong Un had even known and learned. I do agree with Snyder that in order to have a more productive and systematized agreement, the negotiation cannot realistically be achieved by Trump and Kim themselves without support from specialists inside both governments. Kim has to understand that modernization within the country has to start with the modernation of the mind.
Julie WakefieldKim Jung Un has taken numerous steps to prove his worth, not only to the elite in North Korea but also the rest of the world. He has had some of his advisors and family members killed in an attempt to control information and send a message that some things were happening that he did not like. Whether or not these stories that we heard are the actual truth, theu do go so far as 'get the message' out to others and to the world. He also regularly and diligently shows that he is advancing the study and product of nuclear weapons and different short range and lang range missiles. Many of these missile test end up near US allies so that makes many people nervous. As he received some education in Switzerland, there was some hope that he would modernize some policies (economic and political) of the country. Additionally it was hopeful that since he had experienced the 'world outside NK' that he would be more willing to open the country - culturally, technologically (communication and entertainment), economically and politically....all around people were hopeful, but that does not appear to be happening.
However, observation from my part....there are more memoirs published of people who have defected and escaped from North Korea since he took over in 2011. Does that mean more people are leaving? Or are the people leaving just feeling braver and willing to share their stories? Baek's book (which I just happened to read last month) gives many, many examples of technology (DVDs, USB Drives, laptops, etc) being smuggled into North Korea? It appears from his perspective, there are large numbers of people being exposed to information from outside. Does this mean Kim Jung Un is ok with this? He can't be in the dark about this, can he? Or is this is passive way 'opening' up the country to more outside information while he can still maintain that he controls the stream of information the people receive. (And one of the soldiers in Crashing Landing on You is obsessed with K-drama - watched episodes while on duty!)
The next part of the question - do we need to worry about North Korea? I guess my first response is from what perspective? Economically? Politically? Militarily? Humanitarian? All of these have such different answers. I don't think we need to worry economically, politically and militarily. Making a military move towards South Korea or towards Allies of the US would be detrimental to the people of North Korea who suffer most as a result of this type of action. However, from a humanitarian perspective, yes, we need to worry. There are still many people living in poverty, being illegally imprisoned, and huge divides in access to services, information, care, etc. This is really a loaded question!
Deborah WhetstoneHow has Kim Jong Un forged his own path for the Kim dynasty?
~ KJU appeals to the older generation due to his resemblance to his grandfather, as well as continuing the practice of going out amongst the people to give advice/guidance in a wide array of subjects. For others though, KJU is basically forging his own path via weaponizing to a degree not even “military first’ KJI achieved (4 nuke tests to KJIs 2, all stronger than KJIs, and “tested nearly three times more missiles than his father and grandfather combined”); BUT he is doing this in conjunction with trying to improve the economy, almost in a Gorbachev-ish way, minus the glasnost angle. Another article I read (https://www.brookings.edu/essay/the-education-of-kim-jong-un/) called his policy ‘byungjin’ – plan to improve BOTH military AND economy.
For the military, he is forging his own path by defining / describing NK as a “nuclear state” in their constitution. Separately, but also how KJU separates his rule I was surprised to see his wife by his side in some of the images. The Brookings article noted above thought that was planned as contrast to how the government rules the people, which with KNUs modern savvy, is quite possible.
~ BUT, what is the relevance of KJUs title: NK State Affairs Commission Chairman? (KIS = KWP; KJI = military; KJU+????)
How worried should we be about North Korea?
~ Although I’m surprised at how low the amount of GDP is towards the military – given everything read, seems like it would be even more ( I understand that’s an odd statement given ¼ of the GDP isn’t “low”, but given the stereotype, it seems low to me). Regardless, the conflicting accounts of KJU is confusing – more worldly, bringing in more modern elements to improve NK for the ‘people’ (meaning his elites), BUT continuously ignoring agreements and launching / testing more and more weaponry. The amount of provocation he has been able to get away with is frankly rather shocking, and if NK were in a more favorable location closer to others, might be comparable to Hitler and the ‘appeasement policy’ adopted to avoid war.
It seems like NK is playing a long game – to put so much towards military and weapons instead of people, in order to scare SK/US, China, Japan, etc., in to agreeing to lift sanctions out of concern for nuclear weapons? Which is counter-intuitive really – if switched it up even partially, there would be less need for either seemingly.
One line from one of the articles though really stood out to me: “The gods rarely benefited in Greek mythology from their interactions with humans. Meeting with Trump normalizes Kim Jong-un, but it also humanizes Kim Jong-un.” This, along with the increase in knowledge about the world for many NKs, seems like despite KJUs playing a rather tricky balancing game.
Deborah WhetstoneI had the same thought re: change in leadership for the US . . . one of the articles mentioned KJU "outlasted" Obama and Bush. Undoubtedly that is how he sees it, but I didn't like the phrasing of it, since HE didn't defeat either of them - our term limits did.
And I agree with your point about the teams of experts coming down to two people - like the article describing NKs and SKs summit where they both continuously went 'off-script'. {Tongue-in-cheek}, I'm watching the show Madame Secretary this summer, and I can just imagine the hours, days, weeks, etc that went in to planning everything out via careful negotiations so as to not have either side cause offense, and both just basically threw the 'cue-cards' in the air. It worked out okay in that instance, but it could so easily change.
Alyssa YffHow has Kim Jong Un forged his own path for the Kim dynasty?
Like other participants, I found that Kim Jong Un rose to power through the establishment of the Kim family's "Communist Monarchy" as well as elimination of enemies. In the video, there was a visual of the Kim family tree. What stood out to me was that Kim Jong Il had many children with both his wife and mistresses. While we saw in the previous session, the ascension of Kim Jong Il to power was a long process in which Kim Il Sung carefully crafted speeches and navigated the KWP to establish succession by his son. However, it was less clear that this process had occurred with Kim Jong Un. This made me realize think that there was already an assumption of succession by the Kim Family and the matter became which son. It also seems that there were little to no disputes as Kim Jong Un came to power, very few factional rivalries. All of this supports that by 2011 when Kim Jong Un came to power the "Communist Monarchy" was firmly established. However, I am curious if Kim Jong Il had selected Kim Jong Un as his successor? In what ways was Kim Jong Un "prepped" to become the leader of North Korea (as Kim Jong Il had been)?
As Kim Jong Un came into power, there were percieved "threats" from his siblings. So we have seen the elimination of enemies as a key component of his rise to power. This again is similar to his father and grandfather as they pursued a similar course to ensure regime survival. I also noted that while Kim Jong Un has forged his own path in some ways, I felt that he pursued or expanded many of the policies set out by his father/grandfather. Kim Jong Un seemed to have more promise as he was western educated and there was hope for a more open relationship with Korea (as mentioned in the videos). However, he has followed many of the same policies of his predecessors. First, he continues to follow policies that closely censor and monitor the freedoms of the North Korean people. In the Baek article, it talks about how technology and the internet are very large threats to the Kim regime and how this is tightly controlled by the regime. This article really illustrated the fear of the Kim regime. Second, Kim Jong Un seems to be continuing the military first policies of his father, maintaining a highly militarized state and expanding its nuclear capabilities. Many of the articles spoke about the North Korean nuclear arsenal and the potential threat it posed. If anything, Kim Jong Un is forging a new (possibly more dangerous path) through the North Korean nuclear program. Third, Kim Jong Un continues to pursue economic opportunities for North Korea. This seems to be where he truly is forging his new path. I felt that there was limited evidence that North Korea is seeing much progress here, but maybe we will see this in the next few years. He continues the "on the spot guidance" of his father and grandfather as he builds support and trys to expand North Korea's economy. I have to be honest, I am not sold on that Kim Jong Un has forged his own path. I think he is generally following and expanding the policies of the Kim regime.
How worried should we be about North Korea?
I think North Korea is a definte threat for many reasons. North Korea is wreckless with their population and do not prioritize the welfare of their people. The famines, living conditions in the pictures, and level of control over their people (through censorship of the media, lack of individual freedoms, and economic control) should all worry the international community. Likewise, their nuclear capabilities are also a threat. As the video stated, the rule of Kim Jong Un is characterized by turbulence. Many of the articles emphasized this fact as well, that Kim Jong Un is hard to predict and erratic. This again is very concerning.
Questions I have after the video and readings:
1) How and why was Kim Jong Un selected to succeed Kim Jong Il? Was this decided by Kim Jong Il? How was he prepped and trained to move into this position? Is it similar to how Kim Jong Il "long ascension" to power?
2) What actual reforms has Kim Jong Un implemented economically? Does he have economic policy goals? And are they going to benefit the people, or just continue to maintain the status quo of the elites?
3) Has Kim Jong Un made any other changes to the military-first policies of Kim Jong Il, other than more nuclear capabilties? has he expanded the military?
Tom MuellerMeghann - Great point about possible change of administrations. I wonder if North Korea and China are waiting to see what happens with our election. Since a Republican president opened up the dialogue, if Biden wins, then the Republicans should not be able to question if he wants to continue the dialogue. Of course in this day and age, they will. On the other side, if there is a change - how does that also change the relationship between the US and other interested parties (Japan and South Korea). It seems to me that our current administration has taken a very hard line on our East Asia allies. I think this has made this issue even more complex and I wonder if it has fueled anti - American attitudes in South Korea. If yes, how does that play out? I know South Korea has agreed to increase their share of costs for an American presence, however if the current administration is still in power and COVID19 continues to wreak havoc on our lives, how will this play out in the future? Will we continue to ask for increases in South Korea's share due to economic downturns here? If yes, does South Korea eventually say this is not a cost benefit relationship anymore?
Tom MuellerJasmine – Excellent post. I was interested in your comment about THADD, so I decided to complete some research. It is a different type of system “..In a sense, it’s like a very expensive slingshot that’s trying to hit an arrow in flight. Obviously it has to be accurate — close is just not good enough.” It seems THADD is extremely effective, I read one article that stated so far it has a 100% success rate. It is very effective if Kim decides to attack Japan and / or South Korea. However if Kim is able to build the technology to attack the US, then this system will not work. Obviously this is just part of our defense against North Korea, so we will see what happens in the future.
Jane HannonBased my reading of Baek, I think the U.S. and its allies need to be pretty vigilant with regard to North Korea, at least in the short-term, because according to the article, while the attitudes of young people are changing and technology is increasing their knowledge of the outside world, regime change does not appear to be imminent. Baek points out that the younger generation has grown up more accustomed to gaining what they need through private gray markets "jangmadang." This may ultimately reduce their loyalty and gratitude to the state, setting them apart from their parents and grandparents, but this process is likely to take many years. For now, the state is still successfully pervading the lives of ordinary people with propaganda to encourage loyalty to North Korea's leaders, using tactics such as a state radio that broadcasts all day and cannot be turned off and the naming of a school after a girl who sacrificed her lift to save portraits of the leaders. Right now it seems that South Korean and other foreign popular culture holds a strong attraction for young people, but it does not appear to be inspring the kind of activism that could destabilize the regime. North Koreans lack internet access, the government possesses nuclear weapons, and sanctions have not proved effective in reducing the regime's commitment to a nuclear build-up.
Kimberly de BerzunzaI love Madam Secretary! Finished it recently.
You are so right about the "outlasted" comment- that is a gross misrepresentation of reality. Thank you for mentioning this!
Kimberly de BerzunzaHow has Kim Jong Un forged his own path for the Kim dynasty? How worried should we be about North Korea?
First, how did he actually become successor and keep that position? By murdering his uncle and his brother… On the one hand, Kim Jong Un comes with a slightly more worldly perspective than his predecessors, while on the other, he has shown himself to be at least as ruthless and unpredictable as his father and grandfather. He appears inclined to emulate his grandfather in many ways, including his image, using the Korean Workers’ flag, meeting with the people at their workplaces- could he be going for the nostalgia factor and hoping to appeal to young and old alike? Because at the same time, he is intent on continuing to build up military force, which seems more in line with his father’s regime. So in many ways “his own path” seems to be a mixing of elements of his father’s path and his grandfather’s path.
One thing that is different is Kim Jong Un’s in-person meetings with the US, but this was only possible because Trump is the first US president willing to meet with a North Korean leader.
I think we should be pretty worried. Kim Jong Un is unpredictable, saying one thing and doing another. He may not have the power he pretends, but he does have significant ability to do real damage to neighboring countries and his own people, if he wishes. And in North Korea, his power is absolute and unquestioned. With limited Russian or Chinese support, North Korea becomes more independent, and this is scarier because there are fewer opportunities to limit its power through diplomatic or economic influence. However, he does want legitimacy in the eyes of the world, and some knowledge of the outside world is also seeping in to North Korea, so he also has reasons to hold back. Although I don’t see North Korea as seeking world domination, the unpredictability is a danger.
Jasmine WeeksHi Meghann,
It is interesting that you brought up the swing of seeing more authoritarian among our world leaders recently. Although he last emperor and monarchy were seen in the 1960s, the idea that "dictatorship" has not totally phased out. According to this website: https://planetrulers.com/current-dictators/, we currently 50 dictators aorund the world, many reside in the Middle East and Africa. The question I have is how could we educate them? Some of these leader actually got Western educaiton, at least at the thirtiary level. Or is it the humanity issues that affect ruling style?