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Home › Forums › Short Online Seminars › Two Koreas, Summer 2020 › Session 3 (July 16) - 2011 to the Present: Kim Jong Un
Juana Evink.
Jane HannonBased on Noack & Lee's article, it seems that it will be extremely challenging, if not impossible, to achieve the denuclearization of the Korean peninsula through dipomacy. One challenge, as Noack and Lee's account of the events surrounding the 2016 "Panmunjom Declaration" demonstrated, is that Kim Jong Un is unpredictable and his end game is unclear. Immediately upon greeting President Moon, he pressured him to step into North Korea. While the formal statement released was positive and optimistic, Noack & Lee pointed out that the meeting was not broadcast live in North Korea and may not have been accurately reported there, raising questions about whether he was sincere in his pledges. Hill argues for the importance of multi-lateralism, but as tensions have increased between the United States and China since Hill wrote, this will be even more challenging to achieve. Hill is dismissive about the potential efforts to achieve normalization, noting that "one is essentially negotiating with oneself." Even sanctions on oil don't appear to have succeeded in slowing the development of nuclear weapons in North Korea.
Meghann SerilHi Deborah. I wasn't even thinking about the "outlasted" perspective in my first read through. Thank you for pointing that out. I can see how that viewpoint legitimizes Kim Jong Un's rule to the North Korean people. And yes, the "off-script" moments are so revealing. I haven't watched Madame Secretary yet, but I'll add it to my list! 🙂
Meghann SerilHi Jasmine. You bring up such an interesting point about how dictators, including Kim Jong Un, have been educated at universities in "democratic" countries. I am not so familiar with the schooling of other dictators but I would be interested to know what courses are taken and how the principles learned in those courses are applied to their ideas of ruling and guiding their citizens, government institutions, and military organizations.
Jasmine WeeksHi Tom,
Thank you for the research and the reminder that THAAD is good to shoot down missles closer to the launch site. That probably explains why the presence of the U.S. is essential in Korea peninsular, considering that China which is not too far off has maybe even more nulcear weaponry that North Korea than we know of. Here is a site: https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2017/world/north-korea-missile-defense/about the Ground-based Midcourse Defence (GMD) that the U.S. to counter the Intercontinental Ballistic Missile (ICBM), although we don;t know it is fully developed and effective yet. While we were in Kuwait, we have heard of the effectiveness of a protective shield over the military base in Baghdad, Iraq, where the missiles from the air were either intercepted or repelled. Plackett in this article: https://www.insidescience.org/news/science-dismantling-nuclear-bomb states that it is impossible for anyone to launch the nuclear bombs :" without reaking such devasttion that their own citizens back home would not be killed". If any country is to start firing, there must be desperate and it sounds like "endgame".
Jasmine WeeksHi Julie,
I was thinking along the same line wondering how much of the Western education many of the the world leaders received did actually change the course of the leadership. We probabaly have heard stories about how many "juniors' received Western education intending to birng new innovatiosn to their family business which has been running successfully for years, only gets backfire because of the possible risk factors invovled, and perhaps the lack of understanding too what the new innovation would cost. I am thinking it must be difficult to dismantle a system that has been established for decades without really causing an upheaval equivalent to a coup, becausee there are many layers that need to be gutted and considered for an overall effective change.
Jasmine WeeksHi Jane,
I agree with you that staging a coup right now from grass root seems to be pretty bleak considering the amount of control and power Kim and his cabinet have. I wonder though as more and more defectors arise and go back to "save" their families, and the knowledge of the outside as well as the longing to live 'differently" would in due time help the ground up effort. The arsenal is definite hard to beat, howwver, there are also a lot more non-elites that those who are. Having probably some of those elites who also have been educated overseas to help intiate the revolutionary effort would be ideal.
Jane HannonPerhaps the most signficant way Kim Jong Un has forged his own path was by tolerating an increased amount of "gray market" private sector (jangmadang) activity, as mentioned in Baek. This relieves the state of the burden of providing for all of the economic needs of the people and probably reduces the risk of another severe famine. Kim Jong Un seems to want more legitimacy in the diplomatic sphere, as seen by the willingness to engage in talks with South Korea in 2016 and the U.S. in 2018. These talks were ultimately unsuccessful, though. Based on my reading of Sanger and Wong, it seems that Kim Jong Un would like to see sanctions lifted and the U.S. withdraw its troops from South Korea, but he is not willing to end his nuclear program to achieve this. In 2018, he may have been hoping that he could gain an advantageous deal from the U.S. (giving up just a few aged nuclear facilities in exchange for sanctions relief.) Sanger and Wong seem to have been suggesting that Kim was gambling that the U.S. president would be so eager for a foreign policy victory to distract from domestic political troubles that he would offer generous terms. If this was Kim's approach, it was unsuccesssful. It remains to be seen where he will go from here.
Jasmine WeeksHi Jane,
I read more about the Six Party Talks via this link : https://www.armscontrol.org/factsheets/6partytalks. I agree that getting NK to coorperate takes more than just the U.S.. It's a shame that NK refuse to join the Six Party Talks after 2009 round. However, our relationship with China will facilitate geeting Nk on boar since China is just as concerned about the nuclearization in NK and China has a better rapport with Nk than the U.S.
Jane HannonTom, I agree with your observation that part of what is so concerning about the situation with North Korea is that it is really unclear what Kim Jung Un's end game is, or at least what he reasonably hopes to achieve in the short term. Unlike during the Cold War, when the various ideologies and strategies of both sides were articulated and more or less broadly known, it is really unclear what the broad approaches of both sides are here. To some extent, does seem to come down to the personalities and immediate foreign policy and domestic priorities of the world leaders who happen to be in power at that time. That does a lot to increase uncertainty and enable miscalculations to occur.
Heather ButlerSince gaining power upon his father’s death, Kim Jong Un, began a complicated and turbulent path for his regime. He has been involved with multiple summits and talks with the United States, China and South Korea, yielding little results from any of them. He has heightened the surveillance of his people and taken after his grandfather’s role of visiting factories and giving “on the spot” advice. He has taken care of possible “problems” such as his uncle, brother and an American college student through government sanctioned murder. He is pushing for economic development, but because of not yielding to pressures to denuclearize, North Korea continues to have economic sanctions placed on them, Yet he and president Trump are pen pals, which legitimizes him as an international leader. He has done flowery showings of friendship with South Korean President Moon, where they planted a pine tree, hugged and walked back and forth across the DMZ, but has done nothing to denuclearize North Korea. North Korea spends 22% of the GDP on the military and continues to mine uranium and develop warheads and missiles, much in the same vein of his father.
North Korea still poses a threat to the US and their neighbors, because they are still developing and hiding nuclear weapons. Kim Jong Un has shown to keep a tight leash on the information, with multiple levels of censorship, although thankfully more of what is actually happening in the rest of the world is leaking in through contraband. If enough people become dissatisfied with current conditions and the isolation from the rest of the world, Kim has reason to be afraid. It is difficult for groups of people to gather and organize, with texts and phone calls being monitored, and travel being limited. As far as the human rights abuses, poverty and censorship, in North Korea, we should be very concerned about what is happening to people. With so little actual data coming out of North Korea related to these issues, people are suffering, because of their oppressive government. I am actually curious, although we will probably never find out the actual data, how North Koreas are faring during the pandemic, because some science is allowed into the intranet. Is the government enforcing rules that will help the people and the people are following them because they can’t protest, and the numbers are going down or are they faring worse because of misinformation and the high levels of poverty?
Maria CardenasHow has Kim Jong Un forged his own path for the Kim dynasty?
Kim Jong Un has forged his own path for the Kim dynasty in different ways. He is the first leader of North Korea that has set foot in South Korea since 1953. Kim has also declared North Korea to be a Nuclear State. Kim Jong Un has eliminated people he thought were threats to his leadership like his uncle (married to his aunt) and his half brother. He isn’t afraid of taking action like his father and grandfather when he needs to get rid of people. Kim Jong Un met with the president Moon Jae-in of South Korea on April 27, 2018. They “announced their ‘common goal’ of denuclearization on the Korean peninsula” (Noack and Lee). They have a three-page statement that states their agreements with the “Panmunjom Declaration.” They came to an understanding that North Korea would denuclearize of the Korean Peninsula. North and South Korea met two more times in May 2018 and September 2018. In the 2018 Winter Olympics both North and South Korea marched together in the opening ceremony. Kim Jong Un also met with the United States President Donald Trump on June 12, 2018. June 30, 2019 summit at the DMZ Kim Jong Un and Donald Trump met and they excluded the South Korean president. Regardless of the meetings Kim Jong Un has had with different nations North Korea has had 8 missile tests between late July and September 2019.
How worried should we be about North Korea?
I feel that North Korea has the potential to cause harm because they have nuclear weapons. Based on what I have been reading it seems that if an agreement could have been reached we wouldn’t be in the situation we are in. But we cannot be sure because different countries have gone back on the agreements that were made. I feel like at some point North Korea can get upset about the Sanctions that have been placed on them and snap. The Economic Sanctions placed on North Korea are hurting the “regular people” instead of the people in power. Maybe what needs to be accomplished is for North Koreans to be informed of what is happening outside their bubble and learn what is actually happening in the World.
Maria CardenasI had not thought about your point. I had thought about it like he had nuclear weapons and he was getting rid of his enemies. I agree with your point though. People are working in the "gray market" and the younger generations don't remember the state helping them out because they haven't had to wait in line to receive their rations.
Yes, you have good points throughout your paragraph. Kim Jong Un wants a lot of things done in order for him to satisfied and doesn't want to end his nuclear programs. One of the articles stated that Kin Jong Un was surprised that the United States new about some nuclear plants. The North Korean leader was probably playing on Trumps and the U.S. ignorance.
Juana EvinkBased on the video by Professor Kim, Kim Jong Un has forged his own path to a dynasty through violence, intimidation, and hope. When he first came to power people were afraid but also hopeful since he had studied abroad and was young. He comes a cross like a smart, but ruthless leader who would do anything to remain in power. He had his aunt husband kiled,a nd his brother. During his meeting with Trump, he promised less missiles testing, but didn't keep his word. Kim has mnade it clear that North Korea is a nuclear state and wants recognition for it, but in order to maintain his power he wants to focus on economic growth.
I think we should be worried about North Korea since it's a nuclear power, whose realtonship with the United States are unstable. North Korea wants the U.S. military out of the DMZ, and China is their main trading partner. Noth Korea has enagged in human rights abuses, for exampole in 2016 an American student who traveled there was arrested and later died. A country that is a nuclear power is dangerous, especially with a ruthless and unstable leader. In the reading, "The historic Kim-Moon meeting," Kim threaten to strike the residence of the South Korea's president, changed his mind, later they were holding hands and taking pictures in the DMZ.
Juana EvinkHi Heather, you brought up a very interesting point, what about the average Korean people are doing during this pandemic. A country with high levels of poverty, censorship, and nuclear weapons the wrold has reason to be worried.
Juana EvinkDuring the discussion, Professor Kim mentioned that very little is known about Kim Jong Un and his wife and kids, I'm wondering could this be due to him wanting to maintain a dynasty with him as the leader for as long as possible. Why doesn't him allow his wife to make public statments, or show his kids? is he afraid they might be hurt, becasue of him?