[Brett Kier]

There is nothing like a good-ole trade surplus to get GDP and economic growth moving in the right direction. China’s economic expansion, evidenced in part by (and to some extent facilitated by) the entrance of the renminbi into the IMF’s basket of currencies (Special Drawing Rights – SDR), has been part of the long term economic plan of China for some time. The alarmists claiming that China is seeking to take over the status of world reserve currency are willfully ignorant of the Triffin Dilemma, a phenomenon that many Chinese financial analyists have blamed for the 2007-8 finanacial crisis. They want no part of the inflationary effects that come with such an "honor".

The big question is, do they have the guanxi to make the OBOR a reality? As Professor Dube pointed out, China sees itself as the natural world leader in manufacturing, and wishes to reclaim their perceived status quo. Unfortunately for China, economic warfare in the form of the Opium Wars proved successful in causing a precipitous decline in manufacturing. However, China has made great strides to improve the quality, efficiency, and innovation of its manufacturing sector and its country as a whole. The geography of the prosperity has proved problematic in terms of concentration of wealth along the coast, but the concern over debt is overwrought, as MMT (modern monetary theory) has demonstrated empirically.

They are in the midst of their own Gilded Age, but it seems unlikely that international financial interests will be able to facilitate another catastrophic global market crash to rearrange some pieces on the geopolitical chess board; but the US is hard at work, along with its Four Other Eyes, at painting China as a serious threat to national security. The telecommunications giant Huawei is a good example. The criticism of Huawei products and services entering the US lies in part in its origins. Its technology was developed in the Chinese state intelligence apparatus. This is meant to imply that it is a Trojan Horse aimed at spying and stealing from the US, the latter for which China has had a storied reputation. All the US apparatchiks are in a pearl-clutching Conga Line over not allowing Huawei to do business in the US. The US has not been able to prove any wrongdoing by Huawei – Bloomberg has had trouble substantiating its initial article charging wrongdoing by Huawei – but that does not mean there is not cause for concern.

But here is the rub, and this is what students should take away from this as a case study in Third Option (covert action) foreign policy operations and their relationship to hard and soft power: three out of the big four of the FANG are heavily connected to the US intelligence community (Facebook received seed money from In-Qtel, the CIAs tech investment firm; Amazon provides information cloud storage for the CIA; and Google… well… Google; not to mention the entire interwebs were created inside DARPA, the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency. China’s desire to control what comes into their country, albeit in a far more autocratic way, is no different than US concerns over Chinese influence. If anything, China has more reason to be concerned, as they have had the benefit of historical experience with Western “meddling”. US fears are based in the Thucydides Trap paradigm of policy makers who still think the US can maintain the liberal order by projecting hard power across the globe.

[Brett Kier]

Margaret makes a number of apt comparisons here (Chinese vs. Mexican land reform, etc.). The Land Reform movement sought to correct inequities in China's social and economic structure, and in so doing, helped to begin the transformation of labor within the country so that a far greater number of citizens was working in industrial manufacturing and the like.

More broadly, it would also be valuable for students to observe the cyclical nature of the re-distribution of resources vis-a-vis revolutionary movements, and how, in many ways, the oppressor and the oppressed trade hats, perhaps numerous times over the course of a nation's history. For example, Albert Memmi, in his book The Colonizer and the Colonized, attempts to get at the heart of the relationships between those who wield power, and those who are subject to it.

Margaret's final point regarding the economic climate in China that helped to spurn the transition in labor, is particularly aprpos as it relates to high school students employment prospects today, and how the gig economy is a representation of a transition occurring within the United States. Opening this line of discussion with students will help them see the real causes and effects of social and economic changes in their own lives.

[Brett Kier]

"It has always fascinated me how the Chinese have stayed relatively stationary as an empire, country or nation.  It seems that through much of their history they stayed in the lands of “China” and did not set out to build an empire on distant lands like other groups (Mongols, Ottomans, Spanish, British) but remained in their heartland from the Qin until now.  But in staying in these lands they have looked to harness the lands, the water, the resources to make it work for China."

You echo an astute observation that was made by Henry Kissinger. China's method of expanding its influence has been nothing like that of Britain or the US. Also, regarding sunseting of the one-child policy, it would be very interesting to witness the kind of reform movement akin to Ataturk's in Turkey, expanding the status of women in the country. It seems unlikely now, but putting more control into the hands of families and women, as far as reproductive decisions are concerned, will at some point act as the thin edge of the wedge.

[Brett Kier]

China's New Revolution: The Reign of Xi Jinping, a polemic about the rise of China, was written by a CFR Senior Fellow, and as such is replete with the policy recommendations aligned with that organization (globalization on the road to world government with US interests serving as the tip of the spear of global leadership). While the article effectively provides a broad overview of Xi’s rise to power – viewing him as situated tightly between frenemy and rival to US interests – and the political agenda being pursued inside and outside China, the author’s policy recommendations, from the perspective of the US, are just like bell bottoms (permutations of a classic theme, but nothing new).

Some examples include: revival of soft power derivatives on the doorstep to hard power coercion like the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue; the touting of the US’s own version of the a technocratic control grid: smart cities (centralized planning in the guise of sustainable development – see Zbigniew Brzezinski’s Between Two Ages); deployment of the National Endowment for Democracy, an NGO Trojan horse regime change apparatus created under Reagan’s CIA; and political, economic, social , and cultural “reciprocity” to name a few. While it is clear that Xi-Jingping is pursuing police state policies that Stalin could have only dreamed of (imagine what he would have done with Photoshop), The US policy prescriptions outlined in the article are variations on a tired theme, one that Rex Tillerson tried to abandon in favor of a transactional approach of the realpolitik vein, which caused much consternation among China hawks and contributed to his Twiiter breakup with the president.  

More broadly (and this would be a good Socratic Seminar question for students to consider): To what end does the US wish to put a wrench in China’s Marshall Plan on steroids? Democratic values, geopolitical dominance, economic hegemony? Yes. The anarchic milieu of international relations is viewed in zero-sum terms, and like any other nation, China seeks to remake the world in its own image, creating its own Garden of Eden (minus the free will part). So in this sense, the blurred lines between China's domestic and foreign policy are unsurprising, and this observation by students would go a long way towards moving beyond emotionally potent oversimplifications like: “They hate us because of our freedom.”

[Brett Kier]

Looking forward to working with all of you. MOOCs are a valuable resource to spread this information and I am grateful that USC is providing it.

[Brett Kier]

Nice to meet you all.

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